The rules
- Complement: P(not A) = 1 − P(A).
- Multiplication, independent events: P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B).
- Addition: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A and B). The subtraction stops the overlap being counted twice; for mutually exclusive events it is 0.
- Conditional: P(A | B) = P(A and B) ÷ P(B), the probability of A once you know B happened.
Independent vs mutually exclusive
These are often confused. Independent means one event doesn’t change the other’s probability (two coin flips). Mutually exclusive means they can’t both happen (rolling a 2 and a 5 on one die). Mutually exclusive events with non-zero probabilities are never independent: knowing one happened tells you the other didn’t.
Frequently asked questions
How do I calculate “at least once”?
Use the complement: P(at least once in n tries) = 1 − (1 − p)ⁿ. The chance of at least one six in four rolls is 1 − (5/6)⁴ ≈ 0.518.
Can I enter percentages?
Enter probabilities as decimals between 0 and 1: 30% is 0.3.